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OPEC+ Not Expected To Change Course On Oil Production Cuts

By Tsvetana Paraskova of OilPrice.com

The OPEC+ group is not expected to ease the ongoing production cuts when ministers from a monitoring panel meet on Wednesday to review the state of the market, Bloomberg reported on Tuesday.

The Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) of OPEC+ is meeting on October 4 for a regular discussion of the oil market developments in recent weeks. Delegates from the group have told Bloomberg they do not expect the committee to make any recommendations of a policy change despite the increasingly tight oil market and the creeping fears of demand destruction if prices stay elevated above $90 and close to $100 per barrel.

The current OPEC+ decisions are the “right policy,” Suhail al Mazrouei, Energy Minister at one of the leading OPEC producers, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), told Bloomberg in an interview on Monday.

While several OPEC+ producers are cutting oil production from May 2023 until 2024, OPEC’s top producer and the largest crude oil exporter in the world, Saudi Arabia, has extended its extra 1 million bpd cut until the end of this year.

The Saudi cut has contributed to the rally in oil prices, which hit their highest for the year last week, with Brent topping $97 per barrel and WTI Crude rising to the highest level in 13 months.

This week, oil prices have been declining due to the rising U.S. dollar and concerns about higher-for-longer interest rates.

Ahead of this week’s meeting, some analysts suggested last week that the Kingdom could begin easing the cut sooner than oil market participants believe as the world’s top crude oil exporter wouldn’t risk demand destruction through too high prices.

According to Rapidan Energy’s president Bob McNally, Saudi Arabia could start easing the cuts sooner than traders realize as it wouldn’t want to overheat the market.

Warren Patterson, Head of Commodities Strategy at ING, said last month,

“OPEC+ will continue to review supply cuts on a monthly basis, so we could very well see the group – or at least Saudi Arabia – gradually ease its additional voluntary cuts this year, which would help take some pressure off the market.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/03/2023 — 09:25

Leaked Strategy Doc Shows US Views Corruption In Ukraine As Major Threat

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

A leaked US government strategy shows the Biden administration is far more concerned about corruption in Ukraine than it’s publicly letting on, Politico reported on Monday.

The State Department quietly released a 22-page public version of an Integrated Country Strategy for Ukraine that makes clear corruption is a major concern for the US. The strategy outlines long-term goals for US policy in Ukraine with an emphasis on rooting out corruption. “Ukraine must slay the corruption dragon once and for all,” the public version of the document reads.

According to Politico, the confidential version of the strategy is three times as long and uses even stronger language when discussing Ukraine’s corruption.

“Perceptions of high-level corruption,” the confidential document warns, could “undermine the Ukrainian public’s and foreign leaders’ confidence in the war-time government.”

Ukraine has long been notorious for its corruption, but the US has sought to downplay the issueas it has poured tens of billions of dollars in weapons and economic aid since the Russian invasion. But recent corruption scandals have brought Ukrainian graft back into the news and resulted in mass firings, including President Volodymyr Zelensky’s recent sacking of his defense minister and six deputy defense ministers.

A US official speaking to POLITICO acknowledged that “there are some honest conversations happening behind the scenes” regarding Ukraine’s corruption.

Another US official said the Biden administration was discussing with Ukrainian officials the idea of potentially conditioning future economic aid on “reforms to tackle corruption and make Ukraine a more attractive place for private investment.”

The official said that the idea of conditioning military aid is not being discussed as the administration is determined to keep the proxy war going, no matter what risks or costs are involved.

This was not a “leak“

Biden Admin wants this released. They’re going to blame failure on Ukraine’s corruption, which in all fairness, is more true than most excuses these people feed ushttps://t.co/ciDMRkyNRD
— Brad Pearce (@WaywardRabbler) October 2, 2023

Other long-term goals for Ukraine outlined in the strategy include Ukraine’s military adopting NATO standards and establishing a “domestic defense industry” in Ukraine that’s “capable of supporting core needs.”

The strategy also calls for the creation of a “national level resistance plan,” which could mean the US supporting an insurgency if Russia gains more territory. The State Department would not clarify that point when asked by Politico.

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/03/2023 — 09:05

“We’re In The Middle Of A Revolution” — Victor Davis Hanson Warns Tucker: “The Next 12 Months Will Be The Most Explosive In History“

Historian Victor Davis Hanson sat down with Tucker Carlson to discuss his perspective on the current political climate in the US, asserting that American liberalism is characterized by dishonesty, and warning about what he sees as liberal efforts to introduce a highly intolerant age.

“It’s hard for most Americans to comprehend the total dishonesty of American liberalism.”

VDH says Trump represents a significant threat to the specific vision held by liberals, who are employing a “critical legal theory,” in which traditional moral values are abandoned in favor of whatever gains power.

“Liberals are now telling us they plan to protect American democracy and that’s the clearest possible sign that they intend to end it.”

Most specifically, Hanson told Carlson that:

“I think they’ve come to the conclusion that Trump is an existential threat and by association, half the country is to their vision of what they want to transform us into, and so they feel that whatever means necessary are justified.”

And this is an issue since Hanson pointed out that while some conservatives were speaking up, they are also fighting a culture in the Republican Party that preferred to “lose nobly” as opposed to winning elections in an “ugly” manner.

Hanson emphasizes that the traditional boundaries and norms are being renegotiated, from the Senate filibuster and the Electoral College to societal understandings of gender and language, raising concerns that:

“We’re in the middle of a cultural, economic, political revolution,“but “we think that we’re still playing within the same sidelines or parameters, and we’re not. Everything’s under negotiation.”

Hanson argues that the legal actions against Trump are politically motivated and biased and designed to send a message to the half of America that will not simple ‘comply’:

“The idea is now that we now have the power to do this, and because we have the power to do it, it’s moral and right, and if you don’t like it, what are you doing to do about it?”

Finally, Hanson issues a call to action of sorts, noting that “There are legitimate efforts to rectify and stop this madness and let’s see what happens in 2024.”

“You need leaders who will tell people we are in a Jacobin takeover of this country, and the old get along at any cost does not work,” Hanson said.

“I hope everybody can keep their head because I think the next 12 to 18 months are going to be the most explosive in our history since the Great Depression.”

Watch the full interview below:

Ep. 27 Donald Trump appeared in court today, but it wasn’t a legal proceeding. It was a grotesque parody of the system our ancestors created. Victor Davis Hanson explains. pic.twitter.com/KhTHateWCZ
— Tucker Carlson (@TuckerCarlson) October 2, 2023

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/03/2023 — 08:45

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